A lot of people in the west worry that the Iranian nuclear program will eventually lead to an Iranian bomb. Given the nature of the present regime (religious) the fear that this bomb will also be deployed seems more than justified. Will they attack Israel? Will there be a nuclear war between the two?
I think yes, but not as we know it.
If Iran ever gets a bomb -which seems just a matter of time- the regime cannot afford to use it in a conventional way. One of the goals of the state of Israel is to afford Jews a safe place to live, to ‘never let it happen again’. They’re pretty religious about that. Retaliation from the Israeli side will be disproportionate and -if possible- genocidal. If it wouldn’t be, the state of Israel would not serve its purpose. Iran would also face threats or retaliation from the US and maybe even other nuclear states, whose primary goal would be to get Iran back in its place.
Even if Iran would win the conflict and succeed in driving Israel ‘back into the sea’, effectively ending the Jewish state, the Iranian regime will not survive the retaliation. Surviving Iranians will take over and institute a new regime that is not at war with the world any more. They can count on massive support from the rest of the world, most probably not only of a moral nature. Using the bomb on Israel amounts to suicide for the Iranian regime.
There is a solution to this problem: deliver the bomb in such a way that it remains unclear where it came from. If it is doubtful whether Iran is behind a nuclear catastrophe, there won’t be political support for Israeli retaliation, which would make that retaliation less likely. This is where terrorists come in. If you give them a bomb, they may develop the means to smuggle it into Israel. Eventually this will succeed, it’s just a matter of time. After detonation, everyone can deny responsibility, except of course the useful idiots that did the dirty job. Retaliation against them is either useless, or doesn’t require the bomb.
If Israel would be so dumb as to retaliate in a conventional way against such an attack by directly attacking Iran, they will be seen as the aggressors. They’ll be the ones that the rest of the world wants back in its place, they’ll lose political support and only bring the eventual demise of their state closer. They might even give Iran an excuse to conventionally ‘retaliate’.
Luckily the same option that is open to the Iranian regime is open to the state of Israel. If a nuclear bomb would detonate in Tehran and the Mujahedeen-e Khalq -to name just a side-street- would claim the attack, it would be very difficult for Iran to construe this as an act of war by Israel.
It would not be like Israel to not have thought already about this option, not at all. The Mossad must have thought about this long before I did. So if you ask me, the question ‘does Iran have a bomb?’ should be answered thus:
‘Iran already has a bomb, they just don’t know about it yet.’